Travel Study: Continuing Tourism Growth in the Caribbean & Latin America

I.  Total International Stayovers

Various countries in the Caribbean and Latin America (“CALA”) region experienced a remarkable increase in tourism post-pandemic and despite the gradual slowdown of “revenge travel,” visits remain at elevated levels. In terms of stayovers – individuals spending at least one night – increases in travel to the region include both destinations for mass markets as well as those for more niche explorers.

As destinations with the largest scale in the region, both Cancun/Riviera Maya and the Dominican Republic ended 2022, the first post-lockdown year, above pre-pandemic 2019 levels exceeding +10%, continuing the trend into the first half of 2025 (“H1 2025”).

Most other destinations observed saw a slower ramp-up in tourism growth when compared to 2019 until finally exceeding pre-pandemic levels by either 2023 or 2024 and remaining elevated throughout the first half of 2025.

Both the Dominican Republic and Aruba have seen the largest percentage increases in 2024 – approximately 32.4% and 25.3%, respectively – and in H1 2025 – approximately 26.3% and 32.4%, respectively. Additionally, Saint Lucia and the Bahamas after remarkable recoveries have both seen relatively flat figures in recent periods in comparison to 2019 levels.

Despite lower figures across the board for H1 2025 versus 2024, what has arisen is the continuing trend of a post-pandemic “new normal” of increased tourism throughout the entire region.

Costa Rica has shown to be a unique but positive case. While it remains the only destination moderately below 2019 levels, travel from North America in particular – especially as the United States now accounts for over half of all stayovers – continues at elevated levels versus 2019 given a significant lift starting in 2023 and normalizing in H1 2025.

II.    US Stayover Percentage Share

As observed in multiple destinations within the region, US-based travelers historically take up a plurality and in several cases a majority of all stayover travelers.

Versus 2019, almost all destinations have seen an increase in the percentage share of stayover travelers originating from the United States - both in established as well as niche markets. Various dramatic jumps occurred in 2022 and normalized at elevated levels in subsequent years.

Most notably, Costa Rica saw an increase of all stayovers originating from the United States from 42.5% in 2019 to 55.5% in 2024. In addition, Saint Lucia saw a similar increase, with US-originating stayovers going from 45.2% in 2019 to 56.7% in 2024.

III.       Seasonality

Seasonality continues a typically historical trend of overall stayovers in the Caribbean and Latin America, albeit with a few minor deviations observed in 2024, relative to data from 2019 and 2023.

For 2024 overall, the month of March in addition to a more minor increase in February – both within peak season – have seen a lift relative to both 2019 and 2023 across multiple destinations while the opposite occurred in the off-peak month of August. Individually, the Bahamas continue to see elevated levels for April to July versus all other destinations, while Costa Rica has seen noteworthy increases in peak Winter business while decreases in the off-peak late Summer – early Autumn business.

IV.       US Air Travel, Caribbean Region

While US air travelers have been increasing as a percentage share of tourists to various destinations, aggregate amounts for the entire Caribbean have also been on the rise since 2019.

While 2022 as a full year remained largely flat to 2019 levels, 2023 and 2024 have resulted in accelerating gains, with the first half of 2025 remaining elevated. Seasonality remains largely unchanged but even in the lowest demand month of September there are gains versus 2019. In addition, it is noteworthy that for several of the years observed, there is a period of ramp-up starting in May and reaching a peak in July – previously, in 2019 the transition between June to July was flat.

V.     Airport Expansion Projects

To meet increasing demand for their respective destinations, various airports in the CALA region are performing renovation and expansion projects:

1.      Cancún International Airport, Mexico (CUN):

a.       Nearing completion of the Terminal 4 expansion; expected operational by year-end 2025

b.      Construction of a remodeled and expanded Terminal 1 began in March of 2025; expected operational by 2026

2.      Sangster International Airport, Jamaica (MBJ):

a.       Infrastructure upgrades planned between 2026-2030, costing approximately $180mm USD and unveiled in July 2025, given a projected passenger surge through 2034

b.      Inclusive of new gates, modernized baggage and security checkpoint systems, as well as a new access road and more efficient traffic flows

*Source(s): Riviera Maya News (Mexico); The Gleaner (Jamaica)

VI.       Conclusion

As shown through growth in regional stayovers, marginal but accretive shifts in tourist seasonality, expansion in US travelers to CALA, plus ongoing and future expansion commitments at multiple airports to support even more travel – tourism in the Caribbean and Latin America continue at an elevated position in terms of post-pandemic prominence while also poised in the long-term for even further upside. Hotel investment across the landscape remains attractive given growing consumer preference to the all-inclusive resort model in terms of value & convenience, availability of region- specific lenders despite rates remaining in a “higher for longer” status quo, the potential for symbiotic governmental development incentives, and depending on the destination – advantages in either established economies of scale or largely underexplored opportunities.

VII.         About

Mullen Real Estate Capital (“MREC”) was founded as an investment advisory and asset management company to oversee the Apple Leisure Group founders’ real estate assets. MREC’s seasoned executives and advisors have decades of hospitality, real estate investment, travel distribution, and destination management experience and are investors in various institutional grade assets throughout North America, the Caribbean, Latin America, and Europe. MREC launched its sponsored deal platform to enable select co-investors to join as limited partners on various future deals.

Please reach out to Jim Kirby, VP of Capital Markets, jkirby@mullencap.com to connect with our team.

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